people55-older-working-full-time1990-20072Comentario: La cadena. Esta crisis y su efecto dominó que anuncia más medicina para la parte superior y poca o ninguna ‘gota de agua’ para la base de la pirámide. Otra vez: La economía se sustenta en un 70 por ciento de la capacidad de compra de la gente. Y la gente tiene $$ para pagar techo y comida de milagro. ¿De qué están hablando en Washington? De la liberación de la segunda parte del estímulo, y de las promesas de Obama. Como detalle aparte, hoy, en Alemania, Angela Merkel dedica tres cuartas partes de su paquete de estímulo de $66b por dos años a la infraestructura y a la educación. ¿Y qué hacemos en Estados Unidos?

Los bancos quieren más $$,  Bernake está de acuerdo. Y los ‘guns’ para los bancos, bien gracias, proliferan

Obama y algunos dems ¿piensan dos veces si vale la pena o no enviarnos un ‘cheque de estímulo’? o dedicarse a crear trabajos. Obama prometió en campaña a la gente que gana menos de $50.000, bajarles los impuestos, y subírselos a ese 1% que tiene un bolsillo enorme. Obama prometió ocuparse de la educación y la salud, y ahora mismo no sabemos cuáles, de sus promesas de campaña, no va cumplir después de decir en TV que no podrá con todo Y esta reunión en Washington…

Del TARP (Troubled Assets Relief Program) que ya se entregó bajo Bush solamente hemos visto una tímida reducción en los intereses sobre mortgages. Quedan $350 mil millones ($350 billions) y Obama está pidiendo liberarlos… La ‘trampa’, como algunos llaman al TARP, en dos meses ha entregado en las manos de Wall Street, instituciones financieras, aseguradoras, bancos, ¿tres cuartos de trillón de dólares, más los otros desembolsos? Y parte sustancial de ese $$ permanece en secreto aún. No sabemos a dónde fue.

Obama navega aguas peligrosas si termina retirando algunas de sus promesas de campaña. En Washington se discute la posibilidad de ‘generar empleos’. La pérdida de empleos en un año: supera los dos millones. Solamente en diciembre, la economía americana ha perdido 693.000 empleos en diciembre solamente. Sumen esto a los casi dos millones perdidos. Y siguen los layoffs… Mientras, los GOP se quejan. Y la retórica de aquí para allá y de allá para acá nos consume, la verdad. Qué frustrante y qué aburrido.

Vuelvo a recordar aquello de 300 millones de americanos, aquello de darle un millón para cada americano y la capacidad de compra de la gente (el 70 por ciento de la economía) paga sus deudas, compra casa, auto, y se lo gasta en el día a día. Vamos por ¿8 trillones? ¿Para qué seguir botando $$ público para salvar al crap que nos metió en este rollo? Ya vendrán nuevos CEOs…

No, la lógica es otra. Y en esta lógica no está, otra vez, mi bancarrota ni la de millones de americanos.

Mientras, otros aces discuten en Tallahassee y recortan millones a la educación, a los programas que sí funcionan y mantienen el turkey o el pork de algunos intereses de la punta maestra piramidal. Y falta la varita mágica local, que anda en silencios…

Ah, qué mundo. Ya casi me vuelvo tan cínica como ese señor que escuché hoy decir que ‘esto no lo arregla ya ni el médico chino’.

Detalles:

Algunos detalles del Congressional Budget Office ‘y los últimos estimados’ que asume que expirarán los taxes ‘maravilla’ en el 2010 entre otras cosas:

For the 2009-2018 period (the 10-year period used in the previous baseline), CBO is now projecting deficits that total about $1.8 trillion more than those projected in September 2008; about $1.0 trillion of that change occurs in 2009 and 2010. Primarily because of the change in the economic outlook, projected revenues over the 10-year period are, on average, about $280 billion a year lower. Projected outlays are also lower, however, mostly because they extrapolate the funding provided so far this year for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, which is nearly $120 billion lower than the total of war-related appropriations for 2008. 

Outlays. Without changes in current laws and policies, CBO estimates, outlays will rise from $3.0 trillion in 2008 to $3.5 trillion in 2009 (see Table 5). Mandatory spending is projected to grow by almost $570 billion, or by 36 percent; nearly three-quarters of that growth results from the activities of the TARP and CBO’s treatment of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as federal entities. Discretionary spending is projected to grow by $52 billion, or by 4.6 percent. In contrast, net interest is anticipated to decline by 22 percent as a result of lower interest rates and lower inflation. In total, outlays will be equal to 24.9 percent of GDP, a level exceeded only during the later years of World War II.

CBO estimates that incorporating the two housing GSEs into the federal budget would add nearly $240 billion to outlays in 2009.11 Most of that amount results from a one-time expense-the long-term net cost of taking on Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s portfolios of mortgage loans and guarantees.12

Assuming that the TARP eventually disburses the full $700 billion that was specified in the legislation that created the program, CBO has estimated outlays of more than $180 billion for 2009 to account for the subsidy costs related to those investments and loans.13

Spending for certain other mandatory programs is expected to rise sharply this year. The faltering economy has increased outlays for unemployment compensation and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

Unemployment compensation is projected to nearly double- from $43 billion last year to $79 billion this year- as a result of increased unemployment and legislation to date extending such benefits. Outlays for the nutrition assistance program are expected to grow by 27 percent- from $39 billion to $50 billion-primarily because of increases in caseloads and benefits (resulting from higher food prices).

The three largest mandatory programs-Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid-are all anticipated to record growth of at least 8 percent this year. Some of that growth stems from the relatively high rate of inflation recorded early in 2008, which boosted cost-of-living adjustments for retirees and the cost of health care. In addition, rising unemployment will add to Medicaid spending by increasing the number of beneficiaries.

…Discretionary spending under current laws and policies is projected to grow by 4.6 percent in 2009. In CBO’s baseline, defense outlays rise by 5.0 percent and nondefense outlays by 4.1 percent. However, most programs are currently operating under a continuing resolution, which holds funding for 2009 at the level provided for 2008.

Final appropriations and additional funding for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan may increase outlays for 2009 and beyond, and any stimulus package may raise discretionary spending further.

CBO’s projections of discretionary spending for future years include outlays for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and for other activities related to the war on terrorism; those outlays arise from funding provided in 2008 and prior years, from the $68 billion already provided for 2009, and from the $744 billion in budget authority for those purposes that is projected over the 2010-2019 period (under an assumption that funding each year is set at $68 billion plus adjustments for inflation). However, the funding provided for 2009 represents only a portion of what will be needed for those operations throughout this year and probably does not indicate the likely amount of spending in future years.

Revenues. The baseline assumes that the major provisions of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003-such as the introduction of the 10 percent tax bracket, increases in the child tax credit, the repeal of the estate tax, and lower rates on capital gains and dividends-will expire as scheduled at the end of 2010.

As of December 19 (when CBO finalized its baseline), the TARP had used $198 billion to purchase equity in 116 financial institutions (including $40 billion for AIG).

Between December 19 and December 31, the Treasury purchased another $40 billion in equity from 100 more banks (including a second purchase from Citigroup) and disbursed $9 billion in loans to the automakers.

The Treasury has also announced plans for the following additional actions:

=Purchase of $10 billion for equity in Merrill Lynch (upon completion of its acquisition by Bank of America);

==B A guarantee of a pool of assets owned by Citigroup, at a cost of up to $5 billion;

=B Credit protection against debtors that do not pay because of insolvency or protracted default as part of the Federal Reserve’s Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, at a cost of up to $20 billion;

=B Loans to General Motors and Chrysler of another $8.4 billion; and B The purchase of $5 billion in equity from GMAC (a financial services company) and an agreement to lend up to an additional $1 billion to General Motors to help GMAC reorganize as a bank holding company.

The Treasury has indicated that it will use the remainder of the initial $350 billion for additional equity purchases in financial institutions.

Sólo notas…